東京ドリーム
Tokyo Dream

How does Tokyo understand the benefits of TPP?
They simply emphasize the importance of having cheaper imported goods, which translates as pro-TPP, and they don’t want to pay any subsidies to the peripheries. I was born in Tokyo, I know the Tokyo mind, and that isn’t the part I am proud of! They don’t want to pay for other places. They just say, “why don’t you have your own independent lives?” Because they pay a lot every year.

How developed is that opinion? Is there a political movement behind it?
There are a lot of second and third generation politicians in Tokyo; their whole lives are associated with the Tokyo urban rise: Koizumi, Abe, and even Kan and Hatoyama. I just came across some astounding data: the urban populations of London and Paris have been somewhat constant for the last 65 years, with about 15% of the entire national populations. Over the same 65 years, Tokyo has doubled, from 15% to 30%. So it’s just a huge concentration of everything, population, wealth, information, careers. But compared to London and Paris, why do we have to have that huge concentration? And let’s remember Tokyo has the birth rate of 1.09, which is lower than Singapore and South Korea. Japan’s national figures are 1.34, which is already very low. The stress point is somewhere around 2.1 or something, to achieve replacement and factoring in some deaths. So this imbalance is heading toward disaster, and to reverse this trend, we need to have some industries on the periphery and local sides—which they tend to destroy.

Is that because people work too hard in Tokyo?
Yes, that’s a principle reason, because young couples don’t have time to make babies. Before, at least the wife would have a little bit more time in the house. Now, both the man and woman need to go work to earn money, with more than half the jobs being of the unstable type. It’s not the traditional Japanese family, that is already passé.
Are you saying it’s more lifestyle related? Or does it have something to do with policy changes of government?
That’s also part of the reason, with implications for the social security net, welfare, less subsidies for kindergartens and nurseries. It’s easy to make a baby, but not as easy to raise one! The social cost is very high in Japan, and especially in Tokyo; you don’t have enough time, money or facilities.

How does the foreign workforce figure into these movements? Do they live in specific areas and do specific work?
Not very much. The entire foreign populations, including the largest groups of Koreans, Chinese, Indonesians, Filipinos, etc. is only 2%, maximum. They are spread around, but there are some concentrations in the Kanto area. The work that is relevant in Hokkaido is manual labour, for example in dairies or shelling oysters, which isn’t popular with young Japanese people. The “trainee” category was created by the Japanese immigration office some 35 years ago, so officially speaking, those companies are training those employees. But it’s permanent training; and in effect fills the hole of labour shortage. And they still manage to debate whether Japan is open for immigrants or not! When it’s happened already; however the time span is limited to 3 years. In the Tohoku area, you also have the same immigrant-as-trainee labour forces, as the fisheries sector heavily depends on these people; only recently they have had to rely on Filipino and Indonesian nursery workers and care workers. The huge aging problem is coupled with the fact that young people don’t want to engage in heavy, difficult work.

How do domestic policies relate to the TPP? Something like the special economic zones that Abe’s government is introducing feels quite sympathetic to the TPP. Is it just a general movement in that direction?
Yes, but the problem is we don’t know the contents of the TPP. It’s so secretive, and we don’t know what will happen with the movement of people within this framework, for example. Right now Abe is trying to introduce foreign workers, at the same time the economy is rather good, maybe because at the same time a lot of money is going into construction projects, in a very traditional stimulus strategy. During the recession and the “Lehman shock,” construction companies shelved a lot of workforce, especially younger guys. So there is no a lack of labour for this sector, which is at the same time expanding, increasing demand! We will have the Tokyo Olympics, and you can expect a lot of infrastructure investment, as well as hotels and spillover effects. Plus, the traditional topic like care workers. So they are trying to make a package that is not referred to as immigrants, but limited-time foreign workers, with something like 7 years whereupon we will kick them out. I am generally rather positive about foreigners, but the current government is so opportunistic and so utilitarian regarding these foreign workers, just to fill the whole. They aren’t treated as humans. Of course, the government is denying the right of these workers to bring their families, limiting the rights to stay after getting some license or decent, stable life here.

Would there be any effects from the TPP on outsourcing production?
I think it would accelerate the process of outsourcing Japanese industries. But that already happened over the past 20-30 years. It already accelerated during the bubble period and appreciation of the yen. This prompted the Japanese industries to go abroad. That trend wasn’t reversed. I think they anticipate another period of yen appreciation. It’s not a national economy anymore at all; the industries’ interests don’t line up with the national interests, and that gap has only widened.
How does this neoliberalization relate to the conservative, nationalist ideology, for example the one that is driving Abe’s government? It is hard to understand the balance.
The structural reforms are accelerating so that they would attract more investment from neighbouring countries, and the shrinking population means a shrinking domestic market. They need to be more competitive internationally. The growing marketization and the resulting fluidity make compatriots nervous about the meaning of their lives, as they are unavoidably treated as market instruments. Nationalism conveniently serves to fill the vacuum.

If you had to make some predictions for Japan or especially Hokkaido about visible changes, what would they be?
Though it’s not just because of TPP, I think TPP would accelerate the demise of Hokkaido, which is like a microcosm of Japan. Sapporo has had the same degree of concentration, taking people, talent, wealth, from the periphery of Hokkaido to the city, where you have fewer and fewer babies. TPP would hit the already weak local industrial bases; Tokyo people also don’t have a sense about this. That would result in many many ghost towns. If you visit those futuristic ghost towns nearby, for instance Suttsu, there are only old people, no young people. Over the past 15 years, the population has halved, and one by one the infrastructure disappears: The junior high, the hospital are gone, the post office will soon disappear, though the boxes may remain. That’s the future of Hokkaido’s local areas. We had a workshop on this a week ago. Going into the details, Kushiro, Kitami, Hakodate would be the losers; they may attract some of the youth, though they would lose far more young people, especially women, to the city. In those places, less than half of those women in their 20s and 30s would remain in those smaller cities in 2040. First reason is jobs; second is education; and then there are no men with decent incomes, no facilities for raising kids. (Even in Tokyo, there may be more of those places, but you can’t get in!) There is some hope—for instance Obihiro and Nakashibetsu have something that has kept the younger generations; we have to find out what. Obihiro has a good, sound industry based on agriculture: wheat and other things like related industries like chocolate and cookies—value added products. That may be hit by TPP, and if so that would be a disaster.
Why does Tokyo drain the whole country into it? It’s not easy to explain in social scientific terms. There is something to do with big city pride and disinterest in local areas. It distorts their mental structure. Everything is concentrated.

Does the Tokyo life represent something like the Japanese Dream?
But a dream that stays pipe-dreamy; it wouldn’t produce anything. At least in America you could demand expect a huge house with a swimming pool or something. The research we did on Hokkaido’s local areas was based done by the Nihon Sousei Kaigi (Japan Policy Council). A term they used to describe Japan is “black hole (kyokuten) society,” which means that as it moves toward concentration, everything shrinks.